With the election down to hours away, Republicans are confident that Bush will win despite historical projections to the contrary. The only group nearly as confident that he will win are Democrats, who wring their hands in confused frustration over the 45% of Americans who support this president. While liberal fears are based on very real evidence of vote suppression efforts, both systematic and blatantly racial, the conservative's projection of confidence and moral superiority in the face of any scandal or evidence is largely a function of will.
This is another break between the reality-based and the faith-based communities. The faithful maintain their faith with willful disregard of the evidence, perhaps even disdain for it. After all, faith has no value if what you believe in is factually known to be true. The poor reality-based people, on the other hand, look external to themselves when evaluating the world. Here the most stubborn fact they find against them and their world-view is that nearly half of their countrymen ignore any facts or evidence that support the reality-based world-view. Frustration is understandable.
But is this an eternal bind? Evidence and empiricism are the strongest weapons in the reality-based rhetorical arsenal. If a majority of the plebiscite reject evidence in favor of faith, what possible response can there be? The bad news is that if that were true we would be in a very bad place -- something rather like the dark ages. The good news is that it is not true. Despite a leaning on faith, a tendency towards faith, very few people reject empiricism outright. The right evidence is still persuasive.
The right-wing in this country does not ignore evidence as such, but instead twist the analysis of evidence. The evidence is still there, but the mechanisms by which the public evaluate the content, context and importance of evidence have been subverted. The techniques and rhetorical devices used to do this are very old -- many of them have Latin names -- and should be taught in high-school or even earlier. Sadly they are not, and many voting adults do not know how they work or why they are wrong. Today we call this flawed reasoning "spin," and having good spin-control is oddly considered a virtue in many circles. For the most part these are fallacies and errors of reasoning that would be very easy to spot if anyone in the news media cared to try.
The fight for the White House is nearly over. But even if that is won (and especially if it is not), the fight to reclaim public discourse through the broadcast media will have just begun.
-jack*
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